research
My research has evolved around the following subject areas.
Empirical Asset Pricing:
These studies look at the pricing of assets in a global setting
using different risk-return models. My PhD dissertation and the
RFS-2003 paper were testing the consumption based asset pricing
model with incomplete markets and consumption heterogeneity. The
next set of projects evolved around the examination of industry
risk in the pricing of equity returns across countries. My JIFMIM-2000
with Pavel Fedorov from Morgan Stanley focused solely on the newly
emerging Russian market. It established the existence of differences
across various industries in terms of their integration with the world
market. In the subsequent MS-2004 paper with Francesca Carrieri
and Vihang Errunza, we explicitly find some evidence for global
industry specific risk across several industries. These findings
prompted us to further examine the diversification benefits resulting
from cross-country versus cross-industry investing. Finally, in
a recent WP with Ruslan Goyenko, we analyze the impact of changes
in the liquidity of US Treasury bills on global equity returns.
Observe that the cross-country variance in consumption growth (blue series) increases when the world aggregate consumption (pink series) drops.
Foreign Listings:
The series of papers on this subject with Michael Schill dates back to
our PhD studies at the University of Washington. After attending a couple of seminars
on ADRs, we wondered why literally everyone in our field is examining
foreign listing on US exchanges but not in other countries. This
question has prompted us to hand-collect the first global sample of foreign
listed securities based on which we conducted several projects that
could not be completed having data on foreign listings in only one
market. We discovered the following. First, in the RFS-2004 paper,
we find that firms, similar to investors, have a preference
for listings in familiar markets. Second, contrary to the conventional
wisdom, we show in the RFS-2009 paper that firms with foreign listing
placements do not experience permanent cost of capital gains, even
if they are placed in the US. Finally, in a recent WP, we also find
that the history of foreign listings shows big waves over time in
their origin and destination, so that the well-known US market attractiveness
for foreign shares is a relatively recent phenomenon.
Below is the moving average of cumulative risk-adjusted returns of cross-listed firms from 10 years before to 10 years
after the listing. The returns (cost of capital) of these firms in Periods 4 is almost the same as in Period 1.
Fund Performance:
Two papers on mutual funds with Susan Christoffersen look primarily
at the impact of external factors (such as location) on fund performance
and turnover in a cross-section and over time. The first paper,
JFE-2009, shows that funds in US financial centers on average perform
better than in smaller towns. Yet this outperformance comes only
thanks to those managers who stay in financial centers at least
several years. In a new WP we observe that fund trading
behavior is also quite different across locations, yet these differences
do not explain the patterns found in the earlier work.
Observe that the average mutual fund returns increase with city size.
Statistical Issues and Market Anomalies:
Together with Wayne Ferson, my dissertation advisor, and Tim Simin, we
completed several projects that question
the validity of statistical inferences in several well-known settings
in financial economics. The first paper, JFM-2000, illustrates that sorting
of stocks on some firm-specific attribute and two-stage regression
methodology used to document the importance of size and book-to-market effects
for the cross-section of returns can lead to these types of findings even if returns
are unrelated to the attribute risk. Our JF-2003 and JFQA-2008
papers look at statistical inferences in cases of simple predictive
regressions of stock returns and conditional asset pricing models,
respectively. We find that the predictive power for stock returns
of many standard predictors such as dividend yield, short-term interest
rates, etc., is grossly overstated due to the highly autocorrelated
nature of these instruments. This problem is smaller when testing
conditional asset pricing models with time-varying intercepts
and betas.
Here are the results of the regression of monthly S&P 500 index returns on various known predictors, one at a time.
Note that the majority of these predictors are highly autocorrelated.
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